The Effects of Shocks on International Networks: An Agent-Based Model with Simulated and Real-World Data

University Of California-Davis, Davis CA

Investigators

Abstract

Dramatic events such as wars, revolutions, economic crises, and the rise and fall of global powers, are known to have major effects on the international system. Yet good theoretical and empirical foundations to explain exactly how shocks affect the structure of international politics are lacking. This project examines how shocks affect the structure of international networks (e.g., security cooperation, international trade, or international conflict). The study combines two distinct methodological approaches: network analysis, a scientific approach that allows for structural analysis of connections between entities, and agent-based modeling (ABM), a method that uses computer simulation to study the behavior of autonomous entities. The project contains three stages: (a) ABM to simulate the different processes by which international networks form and evolve; (b) Shocks of different types and different characteristics are added into these networks; (c) The ABMs are re-run following the shocks to compare the characteristics of individual states, dyads, groups, and the entire network in the pre-shock and post-shock periods. The ABMs will first be run on randomly generated network data, yielding propositions about the effects of different types of shocks on international networks. Subsequently, these propositions will be tested both by statistical analyses of historical network data and by running the ABMs using real-world data. In order to facilitate the empirical tests, a cultural networks dataset will be collected that includes a breakdown of states' populations into religious and linguistic groups. By integrating computational and empirical methods, this project will contribute to our understanding of how shocks affect international networks. The intellectual merit of the project rests in explaining the effect of shocks on international politics, an important and under-examined avenue of research. This project will provide new insights into historical developments in international networks that were the products of major shocks. In addition, the models and ideas developed by the project can be applied to research questions across the social and behavioral sciences, such as the effects of natural disasters on public health, or the effects of government collapse on economic networks. The project offers several broader impacts. First, it develops an ABM platform that can be extended to examine the effects of shocks on many types of social, economic, and physical networks. Second, it provides a method for testing a large number of hypotheses by using real-world data as inputs to the ABMs, then comparing the simulated networks to historical networks. Third, it establishes a new method for predicting the impact of future shocks on international politics, potentially providing decision-makers with insights into structuring network ties in a way that will optimize the effects of shock-induced challenges (e.g., a revolution in Egypt) on a given state. Fourth, it provides a valuable longitudinal publicly-available dataset on world cultures that will enable research into the effects of culture on international relations and of political processes on culture. Fifth, it provides a much-needed data depository for datasets formatted for network analysis. Finally, it offers graduate and undergraduate students training and experience in theory development, data collection, and empirical evaluation.