Uncertainty in Precipitation Inputs in Ecosystem Studies

Suny College Of Environmental Science And Forestry, Syracuse NY

Investigators

Abstract

The purpose of this EArly-concept Grant for Exploratory Research (EAGER) proposal is to develop an initial analysis of uncertainty in precipitation fluxes of water and nutrients at the scale of a small-watershed ecosystem. This effort complements preliminary studies of uncertainty in forest biomass and in stream loads. Uncertainty analysis is critical to the construction of ecosystem mass balances, one of the pillars of ecosystem science, but is rarely conducted or reported. Failure to address uncertainties can lead to important and erroneous conclusions, for example in identifying missing sources and sinks in ecosystem carbon or nutrient budgets. The activities proposed build upon a large amount of extant data and experience in constructing mass balances and will specifically utilize the unique weekly precipitation volume and chemistry data collected over many years from five watersheds at Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire. This is a great opportunity to help move ecosystem science into a more modern era of dealing with uncertainties in such datasets, which are generally quite common. The broader impacts of the project are potentially transformative. The PI and colleagues hope to facilitate a cultural change that makes uncertainty analysis an accepted and expected practice in the construction of ecosystem budgets.