AGS-PRF: Towards a Dynamical Understanding of Climate Induced Disaster in Mongolian: Identifying Mechanisms, Change and Vulnerability

Davi Nicole K, Palisades NY

Investigators

Abstract

Under the aegis of the AGS-PRF (post-doctoral research fellowship) solicitation, the researcher aims to use modern and paleoclimate data to examine the occurrence of extreme weather and climatic events in Mongolia such as the dzud. A dzud event is characterized by summer drought followed by a harsh winter. The impact of such severe events on nomadic persons and the landscape they occupy could be profound since environmental conditions dictate resource availability. By examining the climatology and spatial and temporal variations of the dzud, the researcher seeks to better understand the relationship between climate and environment. Specifically, the researcher aims to: 1) identify and quantify the spatial and temporal changes in the landscape (e.g. vegetation abundance, drought stress and desertification) that increase vulnerability to climate change; 2) evaluate the spatial coherence of dzud and other extreme events and identify and map vulnerable regions; 3) evaluate the ocean/atmosphere dynamics during known events and identify any patterns or commonalities; and 4) model and reconstruct dzud and extreme events using data and knowledge gained from objective 1, 2 and 3, as well as historical, meteorological, satellite, and paleoclimatic data. The broader impacts involve enabling greater interface between climate science and economics, internationally, and creating partnerships with risk management professionals regarding issues surrounding climate dynamics.