The Role of Urban Centers in Mobilization and Democratization

Ohio State University, The, Columbus OH

Investigators

Abstract

The Role of Urban Centers in Mobilization and Democratization SES - 1125307 Edward Crenshaw Ohio State University Description Past research suggests that many autocratic regimes concentrate their countries' populations and economic activities in single, very large cities (usually national capitals). This pattern is known as "urban primacy" in the scientific literature. In the short term, this allows highly centralized, autocratic regimes to maximize economic efficiency and easily monitor and control the rise of political opposition. This project instead examines the long-term, unintended consequences this urban primacy strategy has for autocratic regimes. Over time, primate cities can concentrate grievances because rapid rural-to-urban migration causes increasing inequalities. Moreover, these densely populated urban centers increasingly offer a unique blend of resources that encourage political mobilization (e.g., local and international media, non-governmental and civic organizations). Thus, the PIs hypothesize that primate cities may indeed become an Achilles heel for authoritarian regimes, serving as key sites of political contention. In short, the project examines whether -- contrary to common perceptions -- urban primacy plays a crucial role in explaining under which conditions authoritarianism has yielded to democracy over time at a global scale. The project employs pooled times-series and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions to investigate the relationship between authoritarianism and urban primacy, different forms of violent and non-violent contention (e.g., riots, protests, terrorism), and democratization during the period 1960-2010. Broader Impact This project seeks to inform our understanding of democratic and authoritarian regimes, social movements, and urban development. Moreover, democratization has long played a central role in U.S. foreign policy. Findings may inform the policy community regarding the conditions under which to expect (1) contention to lead to democratic reform; 2) certain types of cities to become key to regime opposition; and 3) that the complex relationship between e.g., repression, urban primacy and political contention creates political consequences. In light of recent political turmoil in the Middle East and elsewhere, a better understanding of how these forces shape political development may be valuable to a broad set of stakeholders.