Supporting Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO)

University Of Miami, Coral Gables FL

Investigators

Abstract

Abstract The Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign is the US component of an international experiment in late 2011/early 2012 in the Indian Ocean, the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability (CINDY2011). The overarching goal of DYNAMO is to expedite understanding of processes key to MJO initiation over the Indian Ocean and to improve simulation and prediction of the MJO. The field campaign will include multiple radars, atmospheric sounding sites, a research aircraft, multiple research vessels, and oceanic measurements. The three main hypotheses of DYNAMO are: 1) Deep convection can be organized into an MJO convective envelope only when the moist layer has become sufficiently deep over a region of the MJO scale; the pace at which this moistening occurs determines the duration of the pre-onset state, 2) Specific convective populations at different stages are essential to MJO initiation, and 3) The barrier layer, wind- and shear-driven mixing, shallow thermocline, and mixing-layer entrainment all play essential roles in MJO initiation in the Indian Ocean by controlling the upper-ocean heat content and SST, and thereby surface flux feedback This award funds the activities of the Chief Scientist of the DYNAMO field campaign. The role of Chief Scientist consists largely of the organization and coordination activities required to guarantee the success of a large, multi-agency, international field campaign. Activities to be supported are divided into pre-deployment, deployment, and post-deployment phases. In the pre-deployment phase (prior to October 2011), the main tasks are to help complete the preparation for the DYNAMO field campaign and coordinate with international partners of CINDY2011 to finalize the experimental design and field responsibilities. Duties include overseeing the development of a field operations plan; organizing forecast and monitoring activities for the campaign; documenting the climatology of the Indian Ocean region, particularly using new satellite datasets; and coordinating international activities and data access rules. During the deployment phase (October 2011 to March 2012), the Chief Scientist will participate in the field campaign by monitoring large-scale conditions in the region of the campaign, joining an advisory team to help make decisions on radar and aircraft operations, and providing the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with real-time evaluation for its forecast and analysis. The work with ECMWF is part of a collaboration the Chief Scientist has established in which ECMWF will provide its high-resolution weather forecast and analysis products for DYNAMO, and the Chief Scientist will (though this proposal) support a postdoc who will make an extended visit to ECMWF to conduct research on the extent to which data collected in DYNAMO has an impact on medium-range forecasts. In the post-deployment phase, the Chief Scientist will oversee the implementation of the DYNAMO data policy, organize DYNAMO data and modeling workshops, propose and convene DYNAMO special sessions at national and international conferences, summarize and publish materials necessary for post-field data analysis, including climate background relevant to DYNAMO, large-scale conditions during the field campaign, and general descriptions of DYNAMO. The work performed here will have broader scientific impacts by ensuring that the field observations will be collected successfully and disseminated as broadly as possible. The work also has broader scientific impacts through the development of links between US and international scientists. In addition, the Chief Scientist will oversee an effort to bring graduate students to the field through a travel fellowship program, in which students wishing to participate in the campaign apply for travel support, and those selected receive training and are assigned to assist in collecting field data, primarily using radars and radiosonde balloons. The project will also support a graduate student and a postdoc. Finally, the work supports the DYNAMO goal of improving predictions of the MJO, and improved MJO forecasts would have great societal value given the MJO's impact on weather patterns around the globe.