Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Water and Energy Bargaining in Post-Soviet Central Asia

Princeton University, Princeton NJ

Investigators

Abstract

This project seeks to explain variation in cooperation on issues of water and energy policy among the five Central Asian states that attained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Kazakhstan, the Krygyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkemenistan, and Uzbekistan. These states share the Aral Sea basin, which consists of two major rivers: the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The downstream states, those located furthese from the source of these rivers, depend on water for the irrigation of agricultural lands. This interdependence is one of the many legacies left by the Soviet Union. Under the direction of the Soviet administration, the upstream states released water from their reservoirs for downstream irrigation in the summer, and, in return, received energy supplies from their downstream neighbors during the winter. However, after independence, the issue of water and energy policy coordination became a matter of interstate bargaining rather than central planning. How have the states of Central Asia coped with the need for policy coordination in the post-independence time period and what can their experience tell us about cooperation amoung developing states? The effort to maintain Soviet-era levels of cooperation has been neither a complete success nor a complete failure. This project explores the variation in several key aspects of cooperation over the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In particular, it will focus on the timing and length of negotiations, the agreed upon terms of bilateral agreements and the ultimate compliance of signatories with these agreements in the area of water and engergy policy during the past 20 years. It will examine the impact of domestic politics on how states conduct negotiations and make decisions regarding subsequent levels of compliance. The research project therefore addresses important questions about the relationship between domestic and international politics in non-democracies. Although this relationship has been examined fairly extensively in democracies, it remains understudied in other types of government. It also raises the question of how we should measure levels of cooperation - is it the occurrence of interstate bargaining, the length of negotiations, the terms of ultimate agreement, or subsequent compliance with that agreement that really defines international cooperation? By looking at each aspect, the project takes a step beyond most other literature on the topic. In addition, to its contribution to the fields of international and comparative politics, this research will also draw attention to one of the most pressing issues facing a relatively unknown region of the world. The perceived importance of this region has increased in recent years due to its proximity to Afghanistan and its consequent strategic value to the West, making the lack of scholarship even more striking. On its completion, the research project will help fill this void and also provide practical guidance to policy makers in Central Asia by identifying factors that increase and decrease the likelihood of successful cooperation in water and energy policy. These insights could be used in efforts to alleviate the water and power shortages that have constrained economic development in the area.