Dynamical Mechanisms Influencing the Population Structure of Airborne Pathogens: Theory and Observations

Virginia Polytechnic Institute And State University, Blacksburg VA

Investigators

Abstract

The goal of this project is to understand the nonlinear dynamics underlying the mixing of airborne populations of microorganisms, via testing of hypotheses that blend theoretical considerations of dynamical atmospheric structures with aerobiological sampling and analysis. The research program is built on the observation that in environmental flows, chaotic dynamical structure makes efficient movement and dispersal of agents possible, whether these agents are pathogens of plants and animals, chemical pollutants, or engineered devices like sensor platforms or delivery vehicles. We focus on understanding the atmospheric transport of fungi in the genus Fusarium, which are causal agents of a number of devastating plant and animal diseases. Using dynamical systems methods such as Lagrangian coherent structures and almost-invariant sets, we will compute, track, and predict atmospheric transport barriers governing the motion of microorganisms such as Fusarium between habitats. By comparison with results of microbiological analysis, we expect to reveal how dynamical structures partition and mix airborne populations of microorganisms, and relatedly, how mixtures of microorganisms encode their recent history of large-scale atmospheric mixing. The resulting new framework will likely provide a new approach to aerobiological modeling and may assist farmers by providing an early warning system for high risk plant pathogens in the future. To this end, students working on this project will intern at a company conducting aerobiological modeling related to agricultural and environmental decision-making. Moreover, the developed framework could aid in improving modeling of transport of pathogens in more general geophysical environments, paving the way for more effective management strategies for the spread of infectious diseases affecting plants, domestic animals, and humans. Online materials will be generated in the form of multimedia tutorials to instruct the public on the relevance of chaotic dynamics to ecology, as well as computational tools for use by other researchers.