NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Biology for FY 2011

Harsch Melanie A, Des Moines WA

Investigators

Abstract

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology for FY 2011, Intersections of Biology and Mathematical and Physical Sciences. The fellowship supports a research and training plan in a host laboratory for the Fellow at the intersection of biology and mathematics. The title of the research and training plan for this fellowship to Melanie Harsh is "Global assessment of the variability of plant species response to climate change." The host institution for this research is University of Washington with sponsoring scientists Drs. Hille Ris lambers Janneke and Mark Kot. Managing, and therefore predicting, the effects of climate change is one of the greatest societal challenges. Developing and prioritizing management strategies, complicated by variability between species and regions globally, require realism in analyses and accuracy in predictions. This research seeks to understand and predict climate change impacts on species limits through models that incorporate complexity apparent in natural systems, specifically, species sensitivity (functional traits) and ability to respond to climate change (demographic and dispersal rates) along with possible interactions with the rate of climate change. The approach utilizes theoretical mathematical models, based on stage-structured integrodifference equations, and statistical models, built within a hierarchical Bayesian framework to address (1) How climate and demographic rates interact to determine response to climate change; (2) If functional traits or demographic rates can predict response to climate change. This project also identifies potential threshold limits of tolerance and relationships not readily identified through observational studies, thus rapidly advancing the field of biology and conceptual understanding by encouraging new research questions. Training goals focus on developing the necessary skills to conduct interdisciplinary research through advanced training in modern mathematical and statistical methods, model implementation, and validation techniques, as well as communication training through oral presentations, written documents, and visual displays. Broader impacts include the dissemination of the results to conservation and natural resource organizations through written documents and presentations as well as public outreach.