NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Biology for FY 2011

Chang Cynthia, New Haven CT

Investigators

Abstract

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology for FY 2011, Intersections of Biology and Mathematical and Math. The fellowship supports a research and training plan in a host laboratory for the Fellow at the intersection of biology with mathematics and geochemistry. The title of the research and training plan for this fellowship to Cynthia Chang is "Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling to understand community assembly after an eruption and predict responses to global change." The host institution for this fellowship is the University of Washington, Seattle and the sponsoring scientists are Drs. Janneke Hille Ris Lambers and Peter Guttorp. Understanding how natural communities assemble following major disturbances gives unique insight into the dynamic nature of ecosystems through time. In plant communities, dispersal strategy, life history, and growth traits are deterministic factors that influence community interactions. Stochastic factors, such as random chance, can also dictate how communities assemble. Both types of interactions influence community species diversity over the course of succession. Bayesian hierarchical modeling has the unique ability to incorporate deterministic and stochastic factors, multiple scales, and interactions. Biological insight, however, is necessary to build meaningful models. Based upon a 30-year dataset on plant colonization, composition, and trait distribution after a major volcanic eruption, this research is generating models that further our understanding of community assembly processes after a major disturbance, as well as predict future community response to global change based on past relationships. Training objectives include developing expertise in statistical and analytical techniques. Educational outreach includes developing undergraduate and high school course curricula that use Mount St. Helen?s research as a case study and involving graduate and undergraduate students with research. The broader impacts include informing policy makers for future land management of the characteristics of this and similar ecosystems. The predictive models can serve as a theoretical framework for understanding how ecological communities may respond to other major disturbances as well as anticipated global change. The findings of this research are being disseminated through scientific and popular talks, meetings with The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Forest Service, and publications in peer-reviewed journals.