Multiple Equilibria and Self-aggregation of Deep Tropical Convection

New Mexico Institute Of Mining And Technology, Socorro NM

Investigators

Abstract

The tendency for deep tropical convection to aggregate in the absence of any obvious external influences represents an important unsolved problem in the atmospheric sciences. Self-aggregation may serve as a precursor to cyclogenesis, and therefore may be important to the early stages of some hurricanes. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, which represents a prominent but elusive problem in terms of prediction, may also be a manifestation of convective self-aggregation. The goal of the proposed research is to utilize a cloud resolving model to investigate the phenomenon of self-aggregation in tropical convection. The investigators will utilize a novel strategy which exploits the analogy between self-aggregation in large domains and multiple equilibria in limited domain simulations. Understanding the underlying mechanisms which control self-aggregation would constitute a major achievement and could greatly improve the ability of large scale models to represent interaction processes between convection and large-scale tropical flows. Thus this effort has significant broader impacts. In addition to undergraduate and graduate student training, there is a work plan through which the PI will help educate K-12 teachers on climate-related issues.