Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Party Instability and Democratic Elections

Indiana University, Bloomington IN

Investigators

Abstract

Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Party Instability and Democratic Elections What do change and flux in political party organizations imply for democratic elections and democratic performance? This project assesses the extent to which voters can discern electoral information and make reasoned decisions in elections characterized by instability in party organizations. The significance of the project's central question is illustrated by the 2002 parliamentary election in Latvia. Several new parties and party coalitions appeared on the ballot that year: the socially conservative Latvia's First Party, which formed shortly before the election campaign began; the Union of Greens and Farmers, which merged two existing parties with only partially consistent policy programs; and a three-party merger of the prominent National Harmony Party and two markedly more conservative pro-Russian parties. In addition to these new party formations, two existing parties competed for reelection, each headed by a new party chairman. An informed voter in this election would have needed to learn the policy positions of the brand new party, reconcile the ideological inconsistencies within each of the two party mergers, and make sense of what the leadership changes meant for the policy goals and competences of the two preexisting parties. This project constructs and analyzes an original dataset on instability in party organizations in order to examine the consequences of such instability for political representation and accountability in the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe as well as the established democracies of Western Europe. The intellectual merit of the research lies in its contribution to enhancing our understanding of electoral information processing and of democratic governance more generally. Building on extant research in political psychology, the project develops theoretical expectations about the conditions under which party cues are useful to voters. It also contributes to understanding of the processes of democratic representation and electoral accountability, both of which are indispensable for the functioning of any election that adheres to the tenets of representative democracy. Moreover, the project will yield a dataset on party instability in a diverse set of political systems. The dataset will enable other scholars to investigate the causes and consequences of party instability. The study will also make several broader contributions. It will shed light on the importance of party stability for the practice of democracy. If indeed party instability poses a threat to the functioning of democratic elections, then policy makers, nongovernmental organizations, and citizen coalitions would be well advised to turn their attention and resources to the stabilization of party organizations. The findings of this research are relevant not only for new democracies, where political parties are not well-established, but also, and increasingly so, for the long-standing democracies where parties have destabilized over the past four decades. Furthermore, the dataset on party instability produced in this project will be relevant to government agencies and nongovernmental organizations interested in the impact of party instability on corruption, economic performance, and good governance.