Multi-scale climate information for agricultural planning in southeastern South America for coming decades

Columbia University, New York NY

Investigators

Abstract

The Principal Investigators (PIs) will investigate the development of decadal-scale climate information and its use in agricultural sector applications for southeastern South America, where almost half of the world's soybeans are grown. This region exhibits notable interannual variability, decadal variability and long-term trends. It thus constitutes a suitable setting to understand past climate changes that enabled agricultural expansion and apply this new knowledge to decision systems that inform further development and reduce vulnerability. The project will incorporate a range of model simulations and predictions together with historical climate observations. The PIs will analyze the past using statistical and dynamical techniques that target the characteristics of future weather and climate varying on decadal timescales. The agricultural context will dictate the spatial and temporal scale of climate information required for use in soil and crop models, as well as the sensitivity of agricultural decision systems to uncertainty in the climate at different timescales. The broader impacts of this project are high: it is anticipated that the methodological framework will be transferable to other regions.