Collaborative Research: Postseismic deformation for the Izmit-Duzce, Turkey earthquakes: Implications for the mechanics of the earthquake cycle and rheology of the continent

Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, Cambridge MA

Investigators

Abstract

The 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake sequence (M=7.5, August, Gulcuk and M=7.1, November, Duzce earthquakes) occurred within a pre-existing GPS network making it one of the most geodetically well observed seismic events on a major continental strike slip fault. Well-defined pre-earthquake strain accumulation, coseismic motions (reaching ~2 m), short-term (days - months) postseismic afterslip, and longer-term (years - 10 years) postseismic relaxation are all well imaged by geodetic observations. In addition, the earthquake appears to have altered the character of interseismic motions in unexpected ways (i.e., not easily ascribed to standard postseismic processes) as far as 200 - 300 km from the coseismic fault. As such, this event is providing fundamental constraints on the earthquake deformation cycle (inter-, pre-, co-, and postseismic) with direct implications for forecasting future earthquakes on this fault system, and by analogy for understanding the dynamics of similar strike slip faults, including the San Andreas Fault in California. The 1999 sequence occurred along the eastern segment of a seismic gap that extends south of Istanbul across the Sea of Marmara, raising serious concerns about a future earthquake on the western Marmara segment that could have devastating effects on this vulnerable mega-city (> 20 million people). Uncertainty persists about the possible magnitude of future earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, as well as how strain is transferred from the Izmit segment to the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) within the Sea (i.e., the geometry, degree of locking, slip rate on the connecting fault). The Princes Islands are located within the Marmara south of Istanbul and approach within less than 5 km of the Izmit-Marmara connecting fault segment. Two islands (Sivriada and Büyükada) located very near the connecting segment have been selected for ICDP borehole sites (GFZ, Germany are leading this ICDP initiative). In cooperation with this work, we are focusing our initial efforts on installing GPS stations at both borehole sites. Data from these stations will be downloaded by our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center and by UNAVCO. Over three years, these GPS observations will provide improved constraints on the dip, locking depth, and present-day rate of strain accumulation on this fault segment. These anticipated results together with analyses of postseismic deformation throughout the Marmara region, promise to provide improved understanding of the earthquake deformation cycle, and accordingly, estimates of the timing and magnitude of future earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara. This project is funded by the Geophysics and Tectonics Programs of NSF.