Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty and Improved Decision-Making Under Risk

University Of Washington, Seattle WA

Investigators

Abstract

The research team investigates several critical and previously unexplored issues related to the cognitive processing and communication of weather forecast uncertainty. This project takes a novel experimental approach, directly comparing weather-related decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. The goal is to determine the circumstances under which uncertainty estimates are advantageous, despite the fact that they may result in decisions that are suboptimal from a rational perspective. These studies use actual forecasts and forecast expressions in the context of complex, realistic decision tasks, testing specific advantages of uncertainty forecasts, such as individualized decision making and increased trust in the forecast. The project makes important theoretical contributions by exploring the psychological processes that underlie "risk seeking" choices, the relationship between error in the forecast and loss of trust, and the tendency to "simplify" uncertainty forecasts by misinterpreting them as deterministic quantities. Many decisions with important economic and safety consequences (such as whether to protect crops against frost damage or whether to evacuate communities threatened by floods or hurricanes) are based on forecasts that are inherently uncertain. Although it is now possible to assess that uncertainty, little of this information reaches the end user. This is due in part to the fact that it was previously unknown whether lay users could make good use of uncertainty information. This project thereby has practical contributions by exploring methods for communicating forecast uncertainty to overcome problems. For instance, it tackles the largely untested question of whether visualization actually helps people to understand uncertainty. The practical contributions described here are significant especially in context of weather warnings, as the nation faces the consequences of climate change.