NSWP: Photospheric Magnetic Evolution and Impulsive Solar Activity

University Of California-Berkeley, Berkeley CA

Investigators

Abstract

The investigating team has recently used line-of-sight (LOS) solar magnetogram observations of a few dozen solar active regions (ARs) to develop a "proxy Poynting flux" parameter that they have demonstrated is statistically associated with flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In this project, the investigators will build upon and extend their previous work, in order to quantitatively characterize photospheric magnetic evolution and to statistically identify which measures of magnetic evolution are associated with solar flare activity. The quantitative study of AR magnetic evolution can constrain the physical processes leading to solar flares, which is a fundamental problem in solar physics. This research team will analyze a large sample of ARs from the previous solar cycle, specifically using the full-disk, LOS magnetogram archives generated by spacecraft instruments, as well as a common magnetogram dataset that is part of a community Flare Forecast Workshop. In addition to their existing methods of quantifying magnetic evolution, the team will apply more innovative techniques in this project, including inductive flow estimation, autocorrelation, and evolution in magnetic multipole moments. The proposing team will investigate associations between these new measures of magnetic evolution and flare activity, and analyze photospheric plasma flows in LOS and vector magnetogram sequences, as well as flows indicated by synthetic magnetograms developed from MHD simulations. This analysis will focus on the physical processes behind flare-associated measures of magnetic structure, such as strong-field polarity inversion lines, magnetic shear, and vertical electric currents. The proposing team will partner with other researchers to coordinate ongoing community data analysis as part of the Flare Forecast Workshop. They also will assist researchers at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) in implementing trial space weather forecasting techniques using the proxy Poynting flux parameter. Flow maps for the entire MDI archive and a database of parameters for a large sample of ARs will be produced and placed online, to allow wide use by other researchers. Undergraduate students will assist in analyzing data in this effort and will present their results at scientific meetings. This project will improve solar flare forecast accuracy, and thereby enhance operational space weather predictions and benefit wider society.