GOALI/Collaborative Research: A Methodology for Utility-Based Decision Making in Large Design Organizations Using Empirically-Derived Risk Indicators

Oregon State University, Corvallis OR

Investigators

Abstract

The objective of this Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI) collaborative research project is to create and validate a utility-based decision methodology for large design organizations using a quantitative model based on risk indicators derived from data about prior design projects. A risk indicator is a state of affairs that has predictive power regarding risk in a design project. The new methodology will provide designers with a formalized means to go from a qualitative understanding of what indicates risk to a quantitative model of the likely outcomes of risk-mitigating actions. The methodology will include novel methods for risk indicator elicitation, model quantification, and decision problem formulation. These will be validated using mathematical analysis and empirical studies. Initial empirical evaluations will be conducted using classroom design projects. Detailed studies will be conducted with engineers from Boeing using engineering project data. Their participation is key because it enables an industrial-scale evaluation of the methodology. If successful, this research will have a significant impact on large industrial and government organizations that design complex systems under risk. The main outcome of this research will be a validated and cohesive methodology that provides such organizations with new operational capabilities. Prototypes of the computational tools needed to execute the methodology will be made available for use and can provide a roadmap to the development of new commercial tools. It is anticipated that the industry-scale evaluation performed in partnership with Boeing will lead to faster and more widespread adoption of the methodology elsewhere. Workshops are planned to disseminate results to a wide community of design practitioners. Research methods and study results will be incorporated into courses in system design (OSU and TAMU) and engineering management (OSU). Underrepresented students from Oregon middle schools will be engaged through an established program at OSU, where compelling examples of design from Boeing will be highlighted.