A Long Record of Earthquakes with Timing Displacements for the Dead-Sea Transform Fault: A Test of Earthquake Recurrence Models

San Diego State University Foundation, San Diego CA

Investigators

Abstract

This project will test earthquake recurrence and slip models for a major plate boundary fault, the Dead Sea Transform in Israel. Through high-resolution three-dimensional trenching and precise dating of past earthquakes, along with analysis of the exceptionally long historical record of earthquakes in this region, this work will determine the timing and sizes of past earthquakes along this simple fault system. This will provide a test of the repeatability of large earthquakes and whether their occurrence in time is predictable or more random. This issue is at the core of earthquake forecast models and yet there is no general agreement as to what direction or approach should be taken because there are very few long records of past earthquakes, and most lack information on displacement. Understanding earthquake production along plate boundary faults is critical for seismic hazard assessment worldwide. Most studies on earthquake recurrence have been conducted along complex plate boundaries, such as in California where multiple parallel faults affect stress interaction, and on faults with high rates such that the production of large earthquakes is too frequent to precisely resolve unambiguous event ages without overlap in uncertainties. The Dead Sea Transform is a unique plate boundary fault with a very long historical record that slips at a moderate rate, and has a simple segmented geometry with no parallel interacting strands in Israel and Jordan. It is therefore uniquely set to address questions of earthquake recurrence and its variability. Thus, this project will provide much needed information to test the fundamental behavior of continental transform systems, and will lead to better methodology in the forecasting of future destructive earthquakes worldwide.