NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Biology FY 2010

Townsend Andrea K, Ithaca NY

Investigators

Abstract

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship for FY 2010. The fellowship supports a research and training plan entitled "Behavioral drivers of population dynamics for migratory songbirds in a changing climate" for Andrea Townsend. The host institution for this research is the Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, and the sponsoring scientist is Sillett Scott. Potential links between behavior, change climate, and population dynamics of declining migratory birds are often invoked but rarely tested, due to the vast amount of data needed to assess these links and sophisticated computational tools necessary to analyze large, complex ecological datasets. By integrating information from the comprehensive behavioral, demographic and climatic database available for Black-throated Blue Warblers from the Hubbard Brook Long-term Ecological Research site, this research uses multimodel inference in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to identify behavioral strategies that optimize fitness in different climatic conditions. Behavioral and environmental drivers of population change are being examined, in order to assess of the capacity of migratory songbirds to respond adaptively to a changing climate. By the end of this century, models forecast substantial population declines for many migratory birds as a result of climate change. Identifying behavioral drivers of population dynamics in changing climatic conditions is of broad interest to scientists, policy makers and the public. Information gained through this research is broadly transmitted through the Hubbard Brook "Science Links" program, and the Fellow will facilitate data interchangeability with avian census datasets and environmental datasets online. Training goals include SQL programming, database querying, management of large relational databases, metadata documentation, online data dissemination, and mastery of multimodel inference techniques, using computer programs such as MARK, RMark, WinBUGS, and E-SURGE.