Crime, War and Wealth in Pre- and Post- Invasion Iraq

American Bar Foundation, Chicago IL

Investigators

Abstract

SES-0960871 John Hagan American Bar Foundation States do not fight wars in the same ways or with the same consequences as in the past. Civilians are increasingly the victims of new and contemporary wars. While repressive forms of crime against civilians prevailed in the Iraq regime of Saddam Hussein, economic crimes against civilians became more common during the post-invasion Coalition occupation. The crimes of the past Iraq regime set a foundation of sectarian fear and conflict that was released by the US-led invasion and which, in turn, led to rampant crimes against civilians and their property. The research will assess this sequence with three surveys that include more than 9,000 personal interviews conducted before and after the regime change in Iraq. We will assess whether a sequence unfolded in which ethno-sectarian strong state repression and deprivation was followed in Iraq by a weak state in which fears about safety, protection, and resource needs in turn caused extensive sectarian looting and violent crime by gangs and militias. We will more specifically examine whether the wave of violent crimes that peaked in 2005-6 also elevated ethno-sectarian crimes against property to peak levels. The interview accounts will be used to elaborate and illustrate statistical findings. There is little past analysis of property losses during the occupation of Iraq. Yet the loss of household and business wealth is assumed to be extensive, especially for Iraq?s more than four million displaced persons. Previous work predicts that breakdown in state control over crime and violence is most extensive in mixed community settings. This is likely because conflict increases as contesting groups come into close residential contact or in other ways. The research will test such predictions in the post-invasion neighborhoods of Baghdad. We predict that the lower the proportion of the largest ethnic group in a post-invasion neighborhood, and therefore the greater the ethno-sectarian mix, the higher the level of property and person crime. We further predict that a redistribution of wealth in Iraq first began to emerge during a preliminary looting stage (2003-5), then peaked with the rise of violent crimes against persons in a second stage (2005-6), and finally declined in its volume but not in its re-distributional consequences in the third period of the Surge (2007). The combination of data sets available for this research allows a unique case study of the sectarian and economic consequences of violent crime in a transition from a strong to weak state. This is a kind of transition that may be increasingly replacing older forms of military conflict. Broader Impacts: Contemporary wars may be less consequential for military targets than they are for the health and socio-economic well-being of civilian victims. These losses and transfers of wealth can be especially devastating for some while presenting enormous opportunities for others. It is important in developing our understanding to document and explain ethno-sectarian aspects of the redistribution of wealth in settings such as Iraq. This understanding is essential to explaining how these conflicts disrupt and destroy opportunities for growth and development where it often is needed most. Traditional militaristic approaches to the understanding of war in a changing world of international development and destruction are often outdated. The primary goal of this case study in Iraq is to increase our understanding of the socio-economic consequences of crimes against civilians and their property, elements that increasingly characterize modern day warfare.