Development of a Quantitative Model for Measuring Regional Economic Resilience to Hurricanes

Texas Tech University, Lubbock TX

Investigators

Abstract

This research is aimed at developing a quantitative model for measuring regional economic resilience to hurricane hazards. Resilience, being described as a dynamic and complex process, requires measurements at multiple timescales of relevant indicators that include infrastructure reconstruction, mitigation activities, public disaster expenditures, local employment, housing permits, retail sales, and personal income. By integrating atmospheric properties of storms, physical attributes of a region?s built environment and economic characteristics, the proposed model is capable of forecasting the rate of recovery in a local economy at multiple timescales. Key resilience indicators are identified and their effects are estimated with data collected from past events. Because these data are quantifiable and verifiable, we are able to produce a model with enhanced reliability and robustness. Two primary objectives are pursued: 1) model the progress in built environment recovery using remotely sensed image archives; 2) model the rate of economic recovery using time-series data at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level. We are exploring a potentially transformative concept by developing a quantitative model in both economic and physical dimensions of recovery. As the result, a critical knowledge gap between assessing the immediate damage of hurricanes and understanding its broader and lasting impacts could be bridged. The result will afford further numerical evidence for both complementing and strengthening existing theories in urban redevelopment and disaster recovery. The success of this research has the potential to greatly improve the long term economic well-being of communities in hurricane-prone regions with better designed public policies and investment. The outcomes and methodologies will be introduced as part of graduate curriculum as well as through websites and other academic outlets at both Texas Tech and East Carolina Universities. The project will support doctoral students in Wind Science and Engineering and Coastal Resource Management at two collaborating institutions. These activities will provide valuable training opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students, nurture the next generation of experts in multidisciplinary disaster-focused research, and contribute to the knowledgebase of hazard mitigation. It could also catalyze fundamental changes to help communities become more physically, socially and economically resilient in facing future disasters.