North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Pathways

Suny At Albany, Albany NY

Investigators

Abstract

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). This project will use the opportunity afforded by the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment, currently planned for August and September 2010, to investigate the pre-genesis and genesis of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The proposed work is motivated by previous research that identified six distinct objectively defined North Atlantic TC genesis pathways. A distinctive aspect of the proposed research is that TC genesis/null events will be stratified by the six previously identified genesis pathways and analyzed over several complete TC seasons to facilitate uncovering distinctive pathway-dependent dynamical signatures. The project tasks will be: (i) construct a TC climatology over recent North Atlantic TC seasons (not just TC cases since null events are important and will outnumber TC developments) for each of the identified six genesis pathways; (ii) develop a diagnostic parameter indicating the preferred genesis pathway in a region from analysis of recent North Atlantic TC seasons for use during PREDICT and establish which genesis parameters are important for TC development depending on genesis path; (iii) perform detailed diagnostic analyses of TC genesis/null events prior to and during PREDICT to identify genesis pathway-dependent governing physical relationships; (iv) create genesis pathway composite analysis ensembles using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques to highlight pathway-dependent environmental signatures and dynamically important features and relationships; and (v) conduct high-resolution modeling studies of archetype TC events during PREDICT to evaluate pathway-dependent model sensitivity. With respect to the intellectual-merit criterion, the research will advance scientific understanding by isolating the various environmental and dynamical factors that control TC development along individual genesis pathways; establishing the governing dynamical and thermodynamical processes applicable to the individual TC genesis pathways; and increasing our understanding of the physical mechanisms that control TC predictability and error growth along different genesis pathways. With respect to the broader impact criterion, the anticipated advances in scientific understanding will translate into improved medium- and short-range forecasts of TC genesis over the North; contribute to the specialized research training and advanced education of the two graduate students to be supported by this project; and enrich and enhance the teaching and scholarship of the PI and his colleagues in the areas of synoptic-dynamic and tropical meteorology.