Assessing the Impact of Federal Stimulus R&D Funding on Employment and Scientific Output

National Bureau Of Economic Research Inc, Cambridge MA

Investigators

Abstract

The federal stimulus funding increase represents a large shock to the Science and Engineering (S&E) labor market and provides a unique ?pseudo-experiment? that offers an opportunity to better understand how federal agencies, universities, firms, and ultimately students considering science careers respond to an unexpected change in support of science. This project collects contemporaneous information on the way participants in the market respond to the new support. It then compares patterns of funding, employment, and scientific outputs to those in earlier periods, in order to advance understanding about the dynamics of the market that would otherwise be hard to discern. The project consists of three parts. Part 1 measures the 2009-2010 increased federal R&D funding in the context of the total federal R&D budget, compares the responses of federal agency programs to the funding, and assesses the immediate impacts on funded recipients. This is done through analyses of obligations and expenditures and interviews and meetings with agencies and recipients. Part 2 estimates the effect of past economic shocks on the R&D expenditures and Science and Engineering (S&E) employment of firms and universities, and the effect of past federal R&D funding on R&D employment. This provides a baseline for assessing the effect of stimulus R&D funding on employment. Part 3 estimates the timing and characteristics of research publications and patents from past NIH and NSF research grants. This provides insights into how the stimulus R&D funding impacts science and technology. Intellectual Merit This research advances understanding about the way in which federal R&D funding affects science and engineering employment. The research also addresses two key issues. The first of these is identifying the "success rate" or "return" on funding?. The second is identifying the role of funding in successful science. Broader Impacts The research enhances understanding of the impact of federal R&D funding on employment and scientific output. The assessment of immediate impacts and the estimates on potential impact provide timely evidence on what the stimulus is doing and inform agencies in their decision-making. In light of the critical role of science and technology in U.S. economic growth, the study contributes to understanding about the optimal level of R&D funding.