Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Architecture of Political Choice--Political Rhetoric, Economic Perceptions, and Risky Political Prospects

University Of Texas At Austin, Austin TX

Investigators

Abstract

The relationship between the performance of the nation's economy and public support for the government has been a source of scholarly debate for decades. Little research, however, has sought to incorporate the role of political elites as economic opinion leaders into a theory of economic voting. This is an important omission as research in political communications and behavioral economics demonstrates that messages from political elites have significant impacts on public opinion. Theories linking macroeconomic performance with electoral success often acknowledge the importance of political elites in shaping public perceptions but fail to address systematically the impact of elite rhetoric. This project builds on this research by bringing elites and elite rhetoric back into the study of the economic foundations of government support. Specifically, the study addresses three primary questions: What information do individuals rely on to formulate and revise perceptions of the nation's economic performance? What are the causes of observed variation in the nature of the economic vote across developed and developing democracies? How, and to what extent, does the economic rhetoric of political elites shape economic opinion and consequent support for the government? A laboratory experiment conducted in both the United States and Mexico will be used to test a series of hypotheses related to the project's objectives. The results will provide insights into the real-world effect of the economic rhetoric political elites disseminate and citizens constantly face in contemporary democracies. The study of political rhetoric, economic perceptions, and government support has never been more important than it is today. As democratic values and institutions continue to spread across the globe, citizens are faced with the challenge of holding elected officials accountable for their actions. Yet, if political elites are able to shape rhetorically economic judgments for political gain, conventional standards of accountability are undermined. The broader implications for the level of accountability in both developed and developing democracies are massive. As a result, answering the question of how political elites use economic rhetoric, rather than economic policy tools, to shape public support is more than just a scholarly enterprise; it is an essential task for proponents of democratic values and democratic sustainability.