NSWP: An Analysis of Space Weather's Impact on Electricity Flows, Power Grid Operations, and Electricity Markets

Catholic University Of America, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5) The primary purpose of this project is to use multivariate methods to econometrically estimate the extent to which ground-induced currents (GICs) contribute to Loop flows. Loop flows are unscheduled electricity flows or inadvertent flows that represent the difference between scheduled flows and actual electricity flows. These flows are ubiquitous in alternating current transmission systems, frequently large in magnitude, and have adverse consequences on power grid operations. Thus far they have been difficult to predict. While many power grid system operators believe that their systems are only rarely affected by space weather, they may be concerned on an almost daily basis about Loop flows. Previous funded research by the PI presented evidence that GIC levels and various measures of electricity grid conditions are statistically related; in particular, a statistical relationship was found between a proxy GIC index and unscheduled levels of electricity flows between power grids. This project will investigate the hypothesis that GIC induced transmission losses and transmission constraints contribute to Loop flows by altering the path of least resistance. The longer range goal is to estimate econometric equations that could forecast Loop flows based on forecasts of space weather, terrestrial weather, and the scheduled level of grid activity. Nonloop flow issues will also be examined econometrically. The project will lead to better understanding of the contributions of space weather and terrestrial weather to loop flows, enabling power operators and policy makers to more efficiently manage power grids which may have significant economic benefits. The project may lead to further investigations and collaborations between multi-disciplinary teams such as space scientists, engineers, and economists.