Prediction Markets - An Experimental Application to Synthetic Biology

Woodrow Wilson International Center For Scholars, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009(Public Law 111-5). Though on-line prediction markets have attracted significant interest from scholars and increasing application in corporate environments, little work has been done to apply these markets to critical issues in science and technology. This project will explore the application of prediction markets to an emerging field of science - synthetic biology - where a better understanding of future development and directions could be of significant value to funders, policymakers, and researchers. In the course of this project, a set of scholars involved in the social science of prediction markets will collaborate to create a set of experimental markets appropriate to synthetic biology. The markets will be configured such that comparisons across manipulations will yield insight into the boundary conditions in which such markets could yield meaningful forecasts for leading-edge science. Topics to be explored include incentives, time frames, question framing and participants. The project will also help build a community of researchers interested in exploring and improving the application of prediction markets to areas of emerging science.