Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis

Suny At Albany, Albany NY

Investigators

Abstract

This project will examine "tropical cyclone attribution" to identify the primary pre-existing disturbance(s) out of which each tropical cyclone in a season develops. The investigators will (i) develop and apply a means of attributing tropical cyclogenesis to one or more types of equatorial waves; (ii) address the wildly divergent views of existing papers in the literature on tropical cyclone pre-cursors; and (iii) attempt to merge traditional tropical meteorology practice with an alternative framework that makes use of equatorial wave theory. The goal of the last part of the work is to move some ideas from the research community into the operational tropical cyclone forecast community. The investigators have examined the role of mixed Rossby-gravity, equatorial Rossby, easterly waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation on tropical cyclogenesis in their previous NSF support. In this project they will study tropical cyclone formation within "monsoon gyres". These are broad subtropical low pressure areas that often produce multiple tropical cyclones. The ultimate goal of the two parts of this work is to develop a unified approach to understanding the precursor disturbances for tropical cyclones. The broader impacts of this project include (i) the potential in merging operational forecast methods that rely on satellite images with some new theoretical approaches that better define the precursor disturbances, to ultimately improve the forecasts of hurricane formation on a time scale of 5-10 days, (ii) the training of graduate students and (iii) wide dissemination of results and findings in conferences, workshops, and the refereed literature. The principal investigator will also give talks on hurricanes to lay groups as part of outreach efforts.