PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT)

Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA

Investigators

Abstract

Based upon a submitted Scientific Program Overview (SPO) document for the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) project, this preliminary effort will focus on completion of travel required for coordination of potential PREDICT investigators and limited site surveys needed to identify suitable location(s) for operations involving research aircraft and associated personnel. If ultimately supported, the PREDICT field campaign will conduct detailed investigations of smaller-scale atmospheric disturbances within the tropical and sub-tropical reaches of the central and western Atlantic basin, with particular attention to gathering data needed to evaluate the so-called "marsupial" theory of tropical cyclone formation. This paradigm centers on the hypothesized existence of a zone within traveling wave-like atmospheric disturbances that effectively isolates growing convective cloud systems from the deleterious effects of deformational shear and dry airstreams, thus allowing them to grow into more vigorous disturbances (termed tropical depressions) and, in some cases, into full-fledged hurricanes. If supported, PREDICT will utilize the NSF/NCAR GV aircraft as a platform for combined dropsonde and in situ atmospheric measurements in close coordination with additional observational platforms provided by other federal agencies. The project's intellectual merit is centered on improved understanding of atmospheric processes involved in hurricane formation and the ability to more reliably differentiate those disturbances that will grow to become significant tropical cyclones from those that fail to do so. Broader impacts of the planned field program will include training of graduate students, increased collaboration and coordination among multiple research agencies and hurricane researchers, and societal benefits growing out of more reliable hurricane forecasts.