Doctoral Dissertation Research: Simulating Social and Land-Use Adaptations to Climate Change on Mount Kenya

Purdue University, West Lafayette IN

Investigators

Abstract

Societies around the world will be challenged by future climate change. Adaptive capacity will be a function of the ability to act collectively at overcoming those challenges. Communities with livelihoods tied directly to ecosystem services, such as those that rely on agriculture for sustenance, are thought to be most vulnerable. With limited access to agricultural chemical inputs and modern technologies, those communities will need to rely on collective action to adapt to climate change. The focus of this doctoral dissertation research project is to examine the relative contribution of land-use diversity, social capital, and institutional settings in adaptation to climate change along the Eastern slopes of Mount Kenya, Kenya. This project is organized around the general hypothesis that asserts that in a context of climate change, the richness of local social capital and level of land-use diversity determines the first phase of adaptation. In the subsequent phase, long-term adaptations to climate change are sustained by robust institutions developing new land-use rules and diffusing technological innovations. This research combines qualitative, quantitative, spatially explicit methods with computer models to analyze adaptations to climate change. To test this hypothesis, the doctoral candidate will couple qualitative research methods, such as role-playing games, surveys, and interviews, with quantitative tools, such as agent-based and neural network models. The agent-based model and other results of this research will be used to test the robustness of various adaptation scenarios. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries has been targeted by the international scientific community as a major human and scientific challenge. This work will improve the understanding of the mechanisms of adaptation to climate change in rural agro-ecosystems of developing countries. This project will also benefit methodological, theoretical, and practical aspects of socioecological research. First, from a methodological standpoint, the research will constitute one of the few in-depth case studies that analyze adaptations to climate change using qualitative, spatially explicit, and empirically grounded agent-based modeling techniques. Second, from a theoretical point of view, examining adaptation to climate change will enhance socioecological frameworks proposed in geography, ecology, political science, and sociology. Finally, understanding the role of land-use in climate change adaptation is likely to aid natural resource managers and decision makers in developing countries that grapple with these complex issues. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career. This award is jointly supported by the NSF Geography and Regional Science Program and the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.