Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: When And Why Negative Campaigning Affects Voter Turnout

Regents Of The University Of Michigan - Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor MI

Investigators

Abstract

Do negative campaign advertisements demobilize voters? The answer to this question is crucial to understanding democracy. If negative campaign advertisements discourage citizens from voting, then political legitimacy is in question. This project shows when and why campaign negativity can discourage individuals from voting. More specifically, the project demonstrates that negative advertisements demobilize voters only under specific conditions. Existing work on this topic has produced conflicting results. Some scholars claim that negative advertising demobilizes the electorate, while other scholars argue either that negative advertising actually increases turnout or does not have any particular effect on turnout. This project contends that scholars have reached this empirical stalemate because existing research ignores two critical ideas: some individuals decide which candidate they prefer long before Election Day and negative information has a different effect before and after a person decides how to vote. This study combines these two ideas to argue that negative advertising demobilizes voters, but only those who have decided which candidate they prefer. The project uses an experiment to test this process directly and survey data to demonstrate this pattern over seven elections. On a broader level, this study suggests that campaigns that turn negative late in the election season may be more likely to lower voter turnout. In addition, my work provides a roadmap for practitioners. "Going negative" is a topic debated among campaign staffers because it is often unclear if and when negative ads aid candidates in their quest for office. The research undertaken here helps deal with these uncertainties by clarifying how negative campaigning affects voters and which voters will be most susceptible to negativity.