Doctoral Dissertation Improvement: Statistical Modeling of Demographic and Epidemiological Patterns in Late Prehistoric West-Central Illinois

Suny At Binghamton, Binghamton NY

Investigators

Abstract

Bioarchaeological analyses provide keen insight for understanding how the demographic and epidemiological patterns of human populations evolved in response to ecological, social and subsistence changes. The study will provide a fine-grained analysis of the incorporation of domesticated plants into the diet of a sample of populations represented by a temporally and spatially controlled set of skeletal samples. Previous research on Midwestern and Southeastern Native American populations suggests there was a general decline in health over the millennium prior to the arrival of Europeans. This study will investigate the well-being of Native American populations living in the Central Illinois River Valley during late prehistory. Five large, well-preserved and chronologically stratified skeletal samples dating to the Late Woodland (AD 400 to AD 1050), Middle Mississippian (AD 1050 to AD 1300), and Bold Counselor Oneota (AD 1300 to AD 1425) periods are available for analysis. Over the course of several hundred years these populations became more reliant on food production, embraced a pan-regional identity and a higher level of social stratification, nucleated in fortified villages along the bluffs of the river valley, and experienced an increase in endemic diseases and inter-personal violence. This research has two main components that will include data from nearly 1,400 skeletons. The first component will employ hazard models and Bayesian methods of estimating age-at-death to reconstruct the mortality patterns for the five sequential archaeological phases in the region. The second component will examine select indicators of skeletal growth and dental health to explore their co-variance with the risk of death. The result of these analyses will be the production of a model of health and differential frailty for the region that will provide insight into how the risk of death evolved in response to biological, ecological and social factors. The demographic and epidemiological patterns of past populations provide keen perspectives on the current and future condition of humans. The choice to produce food had a profound impact on human health and demography. The significance of this project rests on its application of theoretical and methodological advancements in biological anthropology to further our understanding of the biological cost (mortality, disease and stress) of intensified food production, cultural change and interaction for an archaeologically well-documented region of the Midwestern United States. The results of this research will be presented at scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals. The database generated by the study will be made available to researchers for comparative purposes and collaborative efforts.