Doctoral Dissertation Research: A Participatory Scenario Modeling System for Decision Making in Complex Social-Ecological Systems

University Of Florida, Gainesville FL

Investigators

Abstract

Participatory scenario modeling -- an interactive method for visualizing the future -- is a promising tools for achieving sustainable agreements for complex natural resource problems. Scenario modelers, however, have often focused on the technical aspects of model building, deemphasizing the importance of collaboration and participation. We will develop and test a platform that fuses lessons from many disparate disciplines in order to promote collaborative thinking, the creation of new ideas, and increased ownership and support for natural resource policies. First, we will implement a participatory scenario modeling process in one ideal study system: Mirador Basin of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala. We will integrate tools for: 1) Facilitation and group maintenance: We will work as part of an existing facilitation team in order to maintain full participation of all stakeholder groups, promote mutual understanding, foster inclusive decisions, and teach new thinking skills; 2) Understanding the present: We will characterize and elucidate different understandings of the system through a formal cognitive mapping process; 3) Thinking about the future: We will translate cognitive maps from stakeholders' minds into visual, interactive spatial models and facilitate interactive workshops for exploration of potential futures to stimulate healthy dialogue and social learning. We will evaluate the success of the platform by testing whether the participatory scenario modeling process: 1) promotes the creation of innovative policy alternatives, 2) creates a convergence of preferences among different stakeholder groups, and 3) increases satisfaction with the decision-making process. This research will develop and test a hybrid scenario modeling system especially tailored for decision making in complex social-ecological systems. The results will be legally institutionalized in the new 5-year Master Plan for Mirador-Rio Azul National Park, will help direct regional investments, and will serve as a model for consensus-building and participatory planning in other regions with weak governance.