Doctoral Dissertation Research: Watershed Modeling of Smallholder Timber Management in the Amazon Estuary

University Of Florida, Gainesville FL

Investigators

Abstract

After centuries of logging, the persistence of Amazon tidal floodplain forests indicates a potential for sustainable timber management. Although thousands of families in Amazon floodplain communities participate in poorly understood timber production systems with a seemingly high potential for sustainability, there are relatively few studies that evaluate the sustainability of these small scale operations. This Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement project will evaluate the sustainability of timber management in the Amazon Estuary through the development and testing of a watershed model for the Mazagao River. Watershed models have proven useful for the integrative analysis of ecological and socio-economic processes that influence landscape dynamics, but they have not been employed to address questions related to the sustainability of tropical forest management. The proposed model will be used to address the following questions: (1) How much timber can be produced from naturally regenerated floodplain forests on a sustainable basis given the ecology of the timber species, the size and availability of management areas, and the economics of timber production? (2) How will potential changes in forest management, markets for timber and non-timber forest products, and in enforcement of environmental regulations alter future scenarios of timber availability and use in the watershed? In order to address these questions, the doctoral candidate will develop and test a model. The student will examine landscape characterization of the Mazagao River watershed by employing high-resolution satellite data and object-based classification methods to quantify the extent and spatial distribution of areas appropriate for forest management. He will incorporate population modeling of commercial timber species by adapting matrix models constructed from permanent inventory data to determine sustained yield estimates, and he will refine economic modeling of watershed timber production by employing collaborative monitoring methods of timber-related activities along with field observations to develop a production model that evaluates costs, benefits and economic limitations of timber management in the watershed. A major challenge in Amazonia today is finding sustainable land uses that conserve forest cover and alleviate rural poverty. The issue of sustainable forest management viability, including community and smallholder forest management, has received substantial academic attention due to its clear relevance to both of these goals. Each of the three modeling components to be developed by the doctoral candidate will address a substantive gap in existing knowledge. By filling these gaps, the student will enhance basic theoretical understandings and will facilitate the analyses of the sustainability of land use practices in the Amazon estuary. As a whole, the model results will be useful for the evaluation of current and future scenarios of timber use while providing insights into the main factors limiting sustainable timber use in the Amazon estuary. The project will provide internships to local students at a rural school and will strengthen collaboration with Brazilian government agencies and NGOs to facilitate the return of research results to local stakeholders. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career. This award is jointly supported by NSF's Office of International Science and Engineering.