Doctoral Dissertation Research: Mitigating Inter- and Intra-Community Geospatially Dependent Vulnerability Through the Enhancement of Network Resilience: A Case Study of Sarasota

Pennsylvania State Univ University Park, University Park PA

Investigators

Abstract

With an estimated storm surge of 28 feet along the Gulf Coast, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the devastation that a surge could wreak on coastal communities, because those communities are not prepared for natural events of this magnitude. As the trend of people migrating to coastal locations continues, the potential for a repeat of the Katrina catastrophe increases. Sea-level rise enhances the vulnerability of coastal communities significantly by increasing the extent of storm-surge flooding and exposing parts of communities previously thought to be safe. In addition to the threat brought by sea-level rise, continued near-shore population growth and economic development increases the number of buildings and community assets in hazard-prone areas, thereby creating new risks. This doctoral dissertation research project will examine how people's understanding of the physical risks from storm surge supports long-range planning that accounts for sea-level rise, population growth, and development, thereby helping to make coastal communities more resilient to future storm surges. The doctoral candidate will pay special attention to how storm surges might disrupt the functioning of networks of infrastructure and critical facilities and how planning might lessen such disruptions. The student will accomplish his work by combining storm surge models, vulnerability assessments, and team-based decision-support methods. The decision-support methods will rely heavily on focus groups to combine scientific and non-expert understandings of hurricane storm surge, climate change, vulnerability, population growth, and development into long-range planning for coastal communities. The project will consist of a case study on the physical vulnerabilities of coastal communities to contemporary and climate change-enhanced hurricane storm surge hazards in Sarasota County, Florida. This research project is distinctive because traditional vulnerability assessments have not considered how geographic relationships influence a region's or a community's vulnerability. For example, a community without a hospital may depend on a facility in a nearby town for its health care needs. If a bridge on the only road connecting the two communities becomes impassable, then the vulnerability of the municipality without a hospital increases. Vulnerability assessments have also fallen short in their study of infrastructure networks by failing to combine traditional infrastructure with critical facilities. The project therefore is important because it provides a process that will allow coastal community officials, planners, and residents to improve and expand their use of vulnerability information for long-range infrastructure, critical facility, and overall development planning, thereby creating more sustainable, hazard-resistant communities. This research will enhance society's ability to plan for and respond to natural hazards and disruptions posed by climate change in the future. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.