Structure and Mechanisms of Great Plains Hydroclimate Variability

University Of Maryland, College Park, College Park MD

Investigators

Abstract

The project is designed to examine the source of hydroclimate variability over the U.S. Great Plains. The contributions of various phenomena ( teleconnection of Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the memory inherent in the land surface of North America) to this variability will be investigated through modeling studies. The work begins with an examination of observations and analysis products (atmospheric reanalyses and land surface analyses) to determine the observed modes of variability that may hint at causes. A hierarchy of methods will be applied, from statitical analyses to simplified (diagnostic primitive equation) modeling, and ultimately full climate model simulations. But the main premise, stemming from recent analysis work by the PIs, is that most climate models severely overestimate the strength of the hydrologic cycle over the Great Plains due to errors in model thermodynamics and physics. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) will be the testbed for model forcing refinements based on the analyses. The ultimate goal is to improve climate predictions for this region. A graduate student will be supported.