SGER: 2006 Java Earthquake - A Study of the Deaths and Injuries

Texas A&M Research Foundation, College Station TX

Investigators

Abstract

The purpose of the research of this Small Grant for Exploratory Research (SGER) is to collect and analyze data for the 2006 M6.3 Java earthquake in terms of fatality and injury locations, building types where the fatalities and injuries occurred, and population density distribution for the region. An earthquake occurred on the island of Java on May 27, 2006, resulting in more than 5000 deaths. This earthquake has the greatest recorded number of fatalities for the magnitude of the earthquake and it provides one of the most significant opportunities to study the losses from a bounding function event for the last three decades. The research on the losses will consist of three stages. The first stage involves data collection on the island of Java by the lead PI. Data will be collected on fatality numbers and locations, locations, number and severity of injuries, building types and design standards for the fatality areas, and seismic information about the earthquake from the Indonesian, US, and Australian government sources. Samples of the building materials used in the area will be obtained from local sources and shipped to the US for experimental testing. Interviews will be arranged throughout the island to determine accuracy of the published felt intensity data, determine modes of death and injury, and confirm levels of damage. The second stage involves a building material study to determine the strength, stiffness, and ductility or brittleness of materials used in the local construction industry. A variety of the local typical buildings will be analyzed to determine the range of the estimated structural capacities. The final stage is a spatial epidemiology analysis of the death and injury distribution. The research provides calibration data for fatality models, such as the Nichols and Beavers model and HAZUS. The development of a statistically sound model of the distribution of deaths in earthquakes requires the collection of perishable fatality data in a timely and accurate method. This data is a primary source for completing an analysis of the distribution of the fatalities and the causes of the fatality distribution for the Javanese earthquake. The collected, collated, and published data will be available to other researchers interested in the question of losses and for estimating losses in future events. There are two earthquake fatality models, the Earthquake Fatality Model and the FEMA HAZUS Model. This research provides data useful for comparing the estimated results from the two models to the actual fatality count in one of the most significant earthquakes of the 21st century. Twenty thousand people on average die in earthquakes in the typical year. This research will identify the fatality rates in different types of buildings in Java with the express purpose of calibrating existing loss models and to identify the building components that cause most deaths. This Javanese research on the causes of fatalities provides significant input to work on refining the world's building codes to reduce the death toll in future earthquakes.