HSD: Dynamics of Reforestation in Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: Modeling Land-Use Decision Making and Policy Impacts

Indiana University, Bloomington IN

Investigators

Abstract

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the dynamics of tropical and temperate deforestation within the context of land-use and land-cover change. Touched upon, but not as major a focus of prior research, are the decision-making dynamics that lead to reforestation-a process identified as a mechanism that can offset the loss of carbon due to global deforestation. This project addresses how the interactions between actors at different levels (local, state, federal) contribute to changes in land-use decision making that result in forest restoration and protection. The investigators will examine coupled social, biophysical, and institutional dynamics of forest restoration in the states of Indiana (USA) and Sao Paulo (Brazil). Both states share a long history of settlement from the early 19th century that included rapid deforestation trajectories followed by rural-to-urban migration processes. Forest Transition Theory suggests that shifts in civil society and government regulations make the transition from deforestation to reforestation possible. The research will consider the ramifications of the contrasting legal systems for actors in forest change processes. The study methodology utilizes satellite imagery and GIS data developed for both regions, including topography and hydrology. Household surveys will be conducted to collect information on household attributes, land-use preferences, and awareness of policies related to resource management. Interviews will be conducted with local government officials and managers of nongovernmental organizations, land trusts, and local stakeholder groups active in the study areas (e.g., farmer associations, land developers). The surveys and interviews will be used to inform the development of household-level agent-based models of land-cover change in both study areas. We will integrate spatial methods with tools from experimental economics as a means of testing key decision-making theories to inform the decision making in agent-based models. The broader impact of the proposed research will be its examination of why the rate of deforestation slows in some areas and the feedbacks and forces that then lead to reforestation. An important part of the research will be the role that Non-Governmental Organizations play in forest restoration efforts. Theories of forest cover change in developed economies will be further developed to determine how the dynamics of deforestation and reforestation are affected by both local-level stakeholders and state and federal agents of change. The results have the potential to inform policies and programs designed to encourage reforestation and carbon sequestration, and potentially mitigate climate change. This project is a mult-disciplinary collaboration between researchers at Indiana University and at the University of Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil who will coordinate the Brazilian component of this project.