SGER: An investigation of progressive failure in landslides in the area affected by the 8th October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan

University Of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore MD

Investigators

Abstract

Abstract This research project is designed to exploit a unique opportunity to gain a better understanding of the processes of development of landslide progressive failure. This opportunity results from the occurrence of the 8th October 2005 Kashmir Earthquake in Pakistan, which has left many slopes in a heavily deformed, metastable, but to date, unfailed state. We will use monitoring and mapping of these slopes to gain understanding of the mechanisms and processes of progressive failure. The research aims to 1) undertake a field monitoring campaign before and after this years monsoon to measure patterns of strain across four landslide complexes through the installation of a network of low cost passive reflectors surveyed with a Trimble 5600 Direct Reflex Total Station, terrestrial laser scanning, and mapping to create a grid of reflector points and high-resolution DEM on the landslides; 2) analysis of total station and laser scan data allowing correlation between conceptual models of progressive failure and real landslide movement; 3) to determine the critical strain at which failure occurs; and 4) to refine conceptual models of landslide failure. The PI conducted an initial reconnaissance to the proposed study area in January 2006, with Professor David Petley at the University of Durham in the UK. Bulmer and Petley have jointly determined to focus on progressive failure and have taken responsibility for acquiring related datasets. The research that will be undertaken fits into a larger effort for landslides studies requested by the Geologic Survey of Pakistan for which Bulmer has been asked to participate by the Director Dr. Kausar, and by Brigadier Nasrullah Abeer, and Maj. General Shahid Niaz of the Pakistan Army. This project has been designed with their approval and the GSP will provide logistical support as well as assign one or more geologists to join us during the field studies. The broader impacts of the study relate to mounting evidence that the impact of landslides is increasing globally with time, and that in general these impacts are focused in upland environments in developing countries. Asia, South and Central America are particularly prone to landslide disasters. The Kashmir earthquake provides an opportunity to collect a baseline dataset with which to address critical questions relating to the short, medium and long term response of the slopes to landslides. These are scientifically important and have relevance to processes of sediment flux and landscape evolution in areas of seismic risk throughout the Himalaya and other active mountain belts including those in the US. Additionally, answers to these questions provide vital inputs into the arenas of disaster aid and reconstruction. This award is jointly funded by the GeoEnvironmental Engineering and GeoHazards Program within the CMS Division of the Engineering Directorate; the Geomorphology and Land-Use Dynamics Program within the EAR Division of the Geological Sciences Directorate; and the Office of International Science and Engineering within the Office of the Director.