Sustaining Growth in Computing Performance and the Moore's Law Ecology

National Academy Of Sciences, Washington DC

Investigators

Abstract

A variety of challenges to the historical pattern of rapid growth in computing performance--including a marked decline in the scaling of single-processor performance, a growing performance gap between processor performance and memory bandwidth, and threats on the horizon to the historical rate of increase in microprocessor transistor density--have emerged. Meanwhile, societal expectations for technology performance show no signs of slowing, emerging computing applications demand ever-greater performance, and broad segments of the computing industry count on ever-improving computer performance. A study by an expert committee organized under the auspices of the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of National Research Council is exploring these emerging challenges to sustaining computing performance growth through a consideration of issues from hardware to system architecture to operating systems to software programming models and languages to applications. Through briefings by experts, presentations and discussions at workshops, and deliberations of the expert study committee, the study is examining these challenges and their implications for the U.S. computing industry. Building on an assessment of emerging solutions, open research problems, and promising directions, a research, development, and educational agenda will be developed along with recommendations aimed at implementing the agenda. The study will culminate in the preparation of a published report written to be accessible to non-experts that will be disseminated widely to researchers, educators, and decision-makers.