Modeling Agricultural Land-Use Changes in Inner Mongolia

Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo MI

Investigators

Abstract

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) incorporates slightly under 1.2 million km2 (120 million ha), with cultivated land accounting for 5.7 percent of this total. Once part of the vast Mongol Empire, population densities for much of the region's long history were low and the ecological "footprint" of humans on these "great grass seas" was negligible. All of this changed with the creation of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Since then, resettlement of IMAR by Han and Hui ethnic groups has been considerable. Ecological damage from inappropriate agricultural, forestry, and husbandry practices is now as extensive as in any region of China. With growing exports of wool and hides, and the increase in domestic consumption of beef and lamb, overgrazing is rampant. The reform era, starting in 1978, brought both challenge and opportunity to the long-abused grasslands. There is now genuine awareness at the very highest levels of China's national government that sustainable policies in agriculture, forestry and husbandry must be introduced and supported if the damage is to be reversed. Some herding families have proven to be good stewards of the land while still earning acceptable incomes. If systematically identified, the strategies used by these families can serve as models for sustainable development of the region. Sustainable land-use efforts are important for a variety of reasons: helping to alleviate poverty, limit out-migration of the young, protection for the grassland environment, promoting local and regional improvement in water quality, and mitigation of seasonal dust storms. This research will identify successful pasture and herd-management strategies in two IMAR banners (county equivalents) through a combination of household surveys, time-series analysis of remotely sensed images, and micro-economic statistical evaluation. The time frame for the project is from 1980 to 2006. Imagery assessment over the study period can show us how changes in agricultural and husbandry practices in the arid and semi-arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia are reflected in observable land-use and land-cover changes. By linking survey households that provide micro-economic data on their activities and practices to a study of land use land/cover change via GPS technology, we can determine how these changes in land use and land cover are related to previous and current pasture and herd-management strategies at the household scale. This project will contribute to the growing body of basic research specifically directed at understanding the dynamics between socio-economic drivers, the physical environment, and land-use and land-cover changes. Results will also help improve land-use policies through the identification of best-practice pasture and herd-management strategies developed by local herding families and cooperatives. It will also allow for the evaluation of potential ecological and economic improvements that could be realized through the wider promotion and adoption of sound management strategies throughout Inner Mongolia.