Doctoral Dissertation Research: 19th Century Meteorology and Climatology in Kansas

University Of Arkansas, Fayetteville AR

Investigators

Abstract

Kansas and the central Great Plains are subject to dramatic weather and climate extremes that have major impacts on the important agricultural economy of the region. Excellent daily instrumental records of nineteenth century weather and climate exist for Kansas (e.g. Fort Leavenworth which begins in July 1827), but have not been evaluated systematically. Much of our understanding of past nineteenth century climate in interior North America are the result of tree-ring reconstructions. The detailed daily weather observations from the nineteenth century that exist in historical microfilms, newspapers, and diaries can provide much greater detail than is possible with tree-ring data. This research project will launch a comprehensive study to: 1) reconstruct daily nineteenth century temperature in Kansas and link it seamlessly with the modern record from 1828-2006. 2) Reconstruct nineteenth century precipitation in Kansas on a daily to annual basis from 1836-2006. 3) Describe and analyze the synoptic conditions for five severe blizzards of the late nineteenth century in Kansas. A suite of the best instrumental and documentary records will be utilized in order to achieve these objectives including Fort Leavenworth, Manhattan, Fort Scott, and Fort Dodge. Daily nineteenth century temperature and precipitation data will be assessed and corrected using twentieth century weather data to make them directly comparable with observational practices of the modern instrumental record. This study will produce the longest unbiased instrumental temperature and precipitation record in the central Great Plains starting in June 1828 for temperature and May 1836 for precipitation and running continuously to the present. The resulting data will be used to answer several intriguing questions. Has there been a significant secular trend in seasonal temperatures over the past 178 years? Was the mid-nineteenth century drought more severe than the Dust Bowl? Has there been a change in winter storm frequency? Were cold waves more severe in the nineteenth century? This study will document climate variability and climate change in the central United States before and during the period of anthropogenic alteration of the global climate system. This research will provide new nineteenth century data to calibrate proxy climate records (e.g. tree-rings) and assist in climate modeling studies. The methods used in this study will be relevant to future studies of daily historical climate data. The results of this research will be made available to the public and especially schools for their use in evaluating climate variability in the state of Kansas. The results will also be disseminated in literature and presented at scholarly meetings. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.