Empirical and Diagnostic Analysis of the Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the Precipitation of Central and North America

University Of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell MA

Investigators

Abstract

This project will examine the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the warm-season precipitation of Central and North America, will develop a dynamical framework for understanding this relationship, and will make a preliminary assessment of the degree to which the Madden Julian Oscillation may provide predictability to precipitation over the Americas. This forecasting problem covers the time-scales between synoptic and seasonal. Three sets of analyses will be conducted: empirical analysis of the Madden Julian Oscillation during the course of its life cycle; diagnostic analysis of dynamics and thermodynamics; and an assessment of the potential predictability based on its phase propagation. Predictability of regional precipitation at and beyond two weeks based on the Madden-Julian-Oscillation is expected to result in economically and societally relevant impacts for Central and North America. This ranges from flood and fire risks to air quality.