Empirical Climate Prediction and Understanding Related to Hurricanes

Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO

Investigators

Abstract

This research falls into three complementary areas of study, all of which are related to Atlantic tropical cyclones and extended range seasonal hurricane prediction based on statistical techniques. The three study areas are: (1) Improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) Improvement of intraseasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) Development of probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall and destruction. Broader Impacts. Emergency managers, insurance agencies, the media and the general public utilize the PI's tropical cyclone forecasts. His group's forecasts turn the public attention towards the upcoming hurricane season and its potential dangers. In addition, several risk catastrophe models utilize the group's seasonal forecast as a factor in determining suggested insurance premiums.