Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions for the Late Eighteenth and Early Nineteenth Centuries

University South Carolina Research Foundation, Columbia SC

Investigators

Abstract

This award provides funds to support the collection and evaluation of modern tropical cyclone records from the Atlantic Basin from the present to around 1851. Despite the current understanding of Atlantic hurricane variability based on the modern record, a longer temporal perspective would prove invaluable in order to improve hurricane prediction, assess land falling probabilities and periodicities of hurricanes, and relate tropical cyclone activity to different forcing mechanisms of climatic change. The characteristics of prominent interannual and decadal climatic forcing mechanisms likely differed through time. Vast amounts of high-resolution documentary data from different colonial archives extending back several centuries have not yet been seriously utilized for paleo-hurricane reconstruction. This high-resolution source consists of records such as early instrumental records, ship logs, diaries, and newspapers. The researchers will launch a comprehensive effort to reconstruct Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity, at daily to sub-daily resolution, from the eighteenth century to: 1) reconstruct annual counts and tracks of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from early newspapers, ship logbooks, diaries, and early instrumental records, with an emphasis on the period 1800-1850. 2) reconstruct continuous time series of land falling tropical cyclones for selected locations that possess rich documentary records back to the mid 1700s. These locations are North Carolina, Georgia, North East Florida, Southern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, eastern Massachusetts, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. 3) reconstruct the synoptic-scale circulation patterns for selected extreme active land falling years in the Atlantic Basin by examining all available instrumental, documentary, and colonial ship logbook archives over eastern North America and the western Atlantic. 4) examine the relationships between the reconstructed tropical cyclone activity with forcing factors of climatic change. The researchers will examine how El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the thermohaline circulation affect tropical cyclone activity by integrating paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., from tree-rings, corals) with paleo-hurricane reconstructions. The results of the research will be relevant to the interests of coastal zone scientists and planners, habitat restoration groups, land managers businesses concerned with managing risk, and coastal property owners in providing long-term historical climate analyses. The project will also provide a unique learning and training opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students.