Doctoral Dissertation Research. The Trajectory of Deomcracy: The Social Roots of Political Change in Turkey 1946-2004

Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore MD

Investigators

Abstract

SES-0526138 Beverly J. Silver Baris Cetin Eren Johns Hopkins University Comparing Turkey's post-WWII experience of parliamentary democracy to other countries' experiences reveals an anomaly of the Turkish regime, which is seldom noticed. Apart from Turkey, no other country has experienced such a large number of military coups and at the same time enjoyed long periods of parliamentary democracy. The research seeks to account for this anomaly by tracing the social roots of political change in Turkey. It has two specific aims: (1) to map the trajectory of the Turkish political regime between 1946 and 2004 within a new conceptual schema that is designed to overcome some of the limitations of the existing literature on unconsolidated democracies; and (2) to examine the role of three inter-linked processes-(a) social protest from below, (b) competition within the power bloc in Turkey, and (c) conflict among core states-in explaining the trajectory identified. Specific hypotheses on the causal relationships will be assessed through an in-depth historical analysis of the post-WWII period. The research will create several new data compilations on which the historical analysis will draw, including a major new database on social unrest in Turkey from 1946-2004, compiled from reports of protest events published in two major Turkish national daily newspapers. Broader Impacts. The research is expected to make several significant scholarly contributions. First, the comprehensive new database on social protest will fill an important empirical lacuna in the literature on social movements in Turkey. Second, the multi-dimensional conceptual grid developed for analyzing ongoing democratization processes in Turkey will be useful for mapping the trajectory of various democratic regimes apart from Turkey, and will thus contribute to the study of democratization processes beyond the specific case examined here. Finally, the results of the research have broader implications, given that Turkey is frequently pointed to as a model with lessons that can be applied to promoting democratization processes in the Middle East as a whole. Gaining a deeper understanding of the social dynamics that are responsible for the trajectory of the Turkish political regime will help shed light on the potential/limits of current policies designed to promote regional democratization.