NSWP: Quantitative Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons

University Of Colorado At Boulder, Boulder CO

Investigators

Abstract

A major objective of National Space Weather Program (NSWP) is to transfer the techniques and knowledge from scientific research to the operational forecasting activities and to improve present capabilities in forecasting and specifying conditions in the space environment. This project will advance current prediction models to make quantitative real-time forecasts and specifications of the Earth's electron radiation belts from L=3 to L=8. A radial diffusion model has been developed and has achieved great success in predicting the electron enhancements at geosynchronous orbit. However, the current model has only limited application because the model only produces daily averaged electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit. This project will enhance the model to make high time resolution (<1 hour) forecasts of energetic electron fluxes up to 48 hours in advance. It will also provide specifications of the radiation belt electrons from L=3 to L=8 for different local times. It will also examine the effectiveness of radial transport in accelerating electrons. The work will be mostly carried out by a graduate student under the supervision of the principal investigator. The forecast and specification results will be posted and archived on the web to be accessible to the public and the website will be made interactive to allow interested researchers and industrial partners to acquire the results at specified times and locations.