Migration and Ethnoreligious Hate Crime in the Russian Federation: Risk Profiles 2000-2010

San Diego State University Foundation, San Diego CA

Investigators

Abstract

Intellectual Merit. The relationship between demographic change and ethnic violence has been one of the basic research questions in social sciences and the one that has not been studied systematically in comparative settings. This investigation study focuses on Russia where ethnoreligious hate crime has been an increasingly prominent social problem since the late 1990s. The researchers examine demographic, socioeconomic, and policy contexts that give rise to violence such as skinhead riots and street raids by chain-and-rod wielding toughs; torchlight marches and attacks on mosques and synagogues; murders and beatings of foreign residents and diplomats; desecration of Jewish cemeteries and intimidation of Chinese traders by whip-cracking Cossack gangs. Explanations of these events by Russian experts have evoked well-known social science theories emphasizing rebellious youth subculture, rapid social change, prejudice, and political "normalization of violence." These factors, however, fail to explain regional variation in hate crime rates across Russia's provinces, cities, and counties over time. Addressing important gaps in empirical and theoretical knowledge, the current study for the first time models and tests the combined effects of migration and demographic trends on ethnoreligious violence and militant interethnic hostility in the Russian Federation. The study examines new hypotheses derived from an adaptation to the Russian context of the multicausal "defended neighborhood" model of hate crime and the security dilemma model of anti-migrant hostility. By estimating the effects of demographic change in Russia's political and social context-particularly the influx of migrants into ethnically homogenous areas and association of migrants with threats to territorial integrity-the investigation contributes to research on violence in psychology, sociology, and political science. To achieve these goals, the researchers (1) consolidate the data scattered in reports of human rights groups, government agencies, and the media, to provide the first panoramic overview of multi-year trends in ethnoreligious hate crime in Russia's 88 constituent regions and republics and in a sample of approximately 100 of its 2,416 cities, towns, and counties; (2) create a new dataset on migration rates and ethnic composition change in Russia from 1989 to 2002 based on the census data and residency records reported to government statistical agencies; (3) conduct opinion surveys based on multistage probability sampling in areas with varying demographic trends across the Russian Federation (700 respondents) and within the provinces of Krasnodar and Primorskii (700 respondents each); (4) construct and evaluate the consistency of new measures of ethnoreligious hate crime and the militant hostility; (5) assess the impact on these measures of ethnic balance shifts; the interaction between 1989-2002 migration rate and ethnic homogeneity in 1989; territorial threat associated with migrant groups; and regional contiguity/isolation, while controlling for macroeconomic conditions, migration policy, and civic activism; (6) model the risk of ethnoreligious violence for 88 constituent regions of the Russian Federation and a sample of smaller areas in 2005-2010 holding the 2000-2004 trends constant, projecting best- and worst-case scenarios by manipulating the variables responsive to public policy; (7) assess the effects of demographic trends, political campaigning, and local policies on interethnic hostility by comparing descriptive statistics, multiple regression, and path analysis results from the proposed surveys in Primorskii and Krasnodar, as well as by comparing the results of the proposed Primorskii survey and the 2000 Primorskii poll (N=1,010) conducted by the PI as part of the project on Chinese migration in the Russia. Broader Impacts. The project is designed to have broader impacts through informing public policy and civic activism, and improving human security in any society facing the challenges of ethnoreligious hate crime. More than previous research, the study examines the impact of migration policy, law enforcement, and civic activism on hate crime, including the effects of regional deportation laws, residency requirements (propiska); frequency of hate crime prosecution; government support for minority and interethnic civic associations and activities (e.g., ethnic societies and festivals); and the density of human rights organizations. The findings-and, in particular, risk-assessment methodology-will be disseminated through academic journals, conference papers, think-tank memos, and the media in the United States and Russia. Researchers will examine the reliability and contextual relevance of the risk profiles first-hand using ethnographic observations, interviews, and focus groups with local officials, civic activists, and ordinary residents in high-, medium-, and low-risk neighborhoods in Russia. The risk assessment model will benefit societies in the United States, Russia, and elsewhere by helping NGOs and government agencies to channel scarce resources more efficiently; to select locations where the needs for hate crime monitoring and public intervention campaigns may be more acute than they appear; and to map out long-term demographic strategies, including settlement and integration of minorities. The project will establish new international research partnerships between San Diego State University and the Center for Geographic-Political Research of the Moscow Carnegie Center, the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN), Russian human rights' monitoring groups and the Far Eastern Branch of RAN. It will enhance course offerings in comparative politics and research methodology at SDSU, where approximately 40% of students come from underrepresented groups.