Nations in Time and Space: State Learning and International Conflict

University Of North Carolina At Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill NC

Investigators

Abstract

When two nations interact, they do so within the context of history as well as their peers in the international system. Too often we isolate the direct interactions (dyadic behavior) between two nations from this broader context (extra-dyadic behavior). In doing so, we ignore important information about the beliefs and motivations of these nations that may play a role in the direct relationship. This claim that governments observe the behavior of their peers is easy enough to make. What remains puzzling is the role this information plays in foreign policy decision-making. How do state leaders interpret the actions of their friends and foes? More generally, do nations alter their behavior with other states based on what those states are doing elsewhere? The investigator develops a model of relational interdependence in interstate politics that reflects the way states learn from the extra-dyadic behavior of their dyadic partners. I present a dynamic model of this learning process and then operationalize the concept into a publicly available data set. The model represents a learning mechanism states use to process relational interdependence. This learning mechanism is defined as experiential and diagnostic (Jervis, 1976; Leng, 1983; Levy,1994), and it draws from the logic that underpins attitude formation and cognitive balance theories(Heider, 1946; Harary, 1959; Harary and Cartwright, 1965; Newcomb, 1953, 1961). The operationalization of this model is complex but customizable, and the researcher provides an "open source" program of the specification for future scholarship. This product will make it easy for scholars to represent relational spatial interdependence in their current research whether at the state, dyadic, or directed-dyadic levels of analysis. The research will make available data on relational interdependence that is theoretically motivated yet adaptable by current empirical scholars of conflict processes and international relations more broadly. This data will be easily incorporated into current research designs at the state, dyadic, and directed-dyadic levels of analysis. Broader Impacts A second dimension of this research project is a determination of the impact of relational interdependence on the phenomena of war and violence in international politics. This research indicates that when nations determine their courses of action in times of crisis, they rely upon the information produced through relational interdependence. Countries are more likely to get into militarized disputes and wars when their opponents have conflictual histories with other, similar countries in the system. The implications of this research are important for current scholarship in the study of conflict in international relations. They are also relevant to foreign policy considerations, as these results indicate that rather than being deterred by violence, the reputation effects of using force encourage opponents to prepare for war.