DMUU: Individual and Group Decision Making Under Climate Uncertainty

Columbia University, New York NY

Investigators

Abstract

The Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) at Columbia University will coordinate a series of studies of decision processes underlying human adaptation to uncertainty and change-in particular climate-related uncertainty and climate change. The Center's mission is to address decisions made at multiple scales: by individuals, by small groups, and by organizations that face climate-related problems. Center research will be conducted by Columbia students and faculty affiliated with the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy (ISERP) and with various units of the Earth Institute (EI), a consortium of natural and social scientists and engineers committed to improving our understanding of the Earth, its environment and climate, as well as by students and faculty at six partner institutions (Bard College, University of California at Davis, University of Georgia, University of Miami, University of Pittsburgh, and University of Oregon). CRED research will (a) extend insights about the constructive nature of individual decision making to the context of group decisions, (b) integrate social motives more fully into theories of decision making, and (c) study individual and group processes in the laboratory and in field settings as climate-change and climate-variability related decisions occur. A carefully designed set of four laboratory projects, four historical and theoretical projects, and eight field projects around the world will provide interdisciplinary and complementary insights on five substantive objectives: (1) understanding the nature and impact of mental representations and framing in both individual and group climate decision settings; (2) understanding the role in decision making of affective, experiential information vs. analytic, statistical information; (3) understanding the effects of individual and group goals, group composition, and group processes in climate decisions; (4) improving the presentation format and delivery of probabilistic climate information; (5) developing microeconomic theories that incorporate knowledge gained about individual and group decision processes making and macroeconomic theories that integrate climate models and their impacts. Five field projects examine the use of seasonal climate forecasts in individual, group, and institutional decision processes. Three field projects deal with long-term climate change and examine the role of direct personal experience vs. statistical information in detecting and responding to climate change. CRED's research contributions are only the first of four areas of contribution. Research results will feed directly into the design and testing of educational interventions, decision tools, and institutional strategies that will help people, organizations, and governments to better understand the risks and possible benefits associated with climate change and variability and the response options they have. Regarding education and training, the Center will work with several educational programs under the aegis of the Earth Institute at Columbia, Columbia's Teachers College, local New York colleges and high schools, and the Office of Minority Affairs in the Columbia Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. The Center's curriculum and decision tools development will utilize the expertise of Columbia's Center for New Media Teaching and Learning, and the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The large and dense contact network of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) will facilitate dissemination of these products. In addition, the Center will work with the Weather Channel to produce educational segments on climate change and climate variability that will allow for audience feedback. This award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).