Space Weather: Advancement and Validation of Real-Time Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) for Space Weather Applications

Regents Of The University Of Michigan - Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor MI

Investigators

Abstract

A realistic timely knowledge of the high latitude ionospheric electric potential pattern and auroral configuration is important for both research and operational space weather needs. This project will advance the state of the art in specification and prediction of the ionospheric electrodynamics. Specifically, a new, time-dependent, empirical model of the high latitude electric potential will be developed. Individual electric potential patterns will be derived using the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) technique. Since 1997, over 5 million AMIE inversions which have been performed and these inversions will form the core of the database. The primary data sets that have been used and will be used are measurements of the variations in the magnetic field at the earth's surface. Additional data sources will include incoherent scatter radar data from the Sondrestrom and Millstone Hill radars and electron density data derived from ionospheric sounders. A new feature of the modeling will be the inclusion of all-sky white light images into real-time AMIE. This will dramatically help the real-time specification of the auroral location, extent, and strength. In addition, it will allow a better specification of the electric potential through the improvement in the conductance. The AMIE technique will be improved by incorporating adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). The AMR will be controlled by the spacing of the polar geophysical data, such that in regions in which there are multiple data sources, AMIE will resolve features to the appropriate scale. The empirical model will include the effect of saturation of the polar cap potential drop. No current empirical model of the potential takes the saturation effect, which occurs when the solar wind driver is exceptionally strong, into account, and they therefore predict unrealistically large polar cap potential drops during such periods. In order to validate the empirical model, an automated system in which real-time AMIE patterns are continuously compared to DMSP particle precipitation and electric potential data will be developed. The real-time AMIE results will then be compared with the empirical model. The results will be posted on a web site for public inspection. The project also has an educational/outreach and diversity impact. A high school science teacher from a predominantly minority region of Detroit will take part in project, and an automated e-mail system will be set up whereby subscribers will be notified when it is likely that aurora may be viewed that particular night. Teachers in the Detroit area will use this tool to help students learn more about the near-Earth space environment.