Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Impact of Foreign Aid on Democracy

University Of California-San Diego, La Jolla CA

Investigators

Abstract

How does foreign aid affect politics in aid-recipient countries? Although political reform is increasingly central to aid programs, foreign assistance appears to be undermining democracy (e.g., Brautigam 2001; Knack 2001; Remmer 2004). Despite evidence that suggests aid leads to the erosion of democratic institutions, remarkably little is known about the causal links. On the one hand, aid-recipient governments may be using aid as a form of patronage (Moore 1998; Remmer 2004). On the other hand, conditions on aid may force aid-recipient governments to treat aid donors as a constituency (Craig and Porter 2003; Knack and Rahman 2003; Waal 1997). The intellectual merit of this study is clear because these hypotheses have not been synthesized to develop a coherent theory of the political impact of foreign aid. Now is a crucial moment to examine how aid impacts domestic politics because after nearly a decade of declining aid flows, donors are increasing their aid budgets and explicitly are conditioning aid on democratic reforms (see Crawford 2001; Doornbos 2001; Radelet 2003; UNDP 2002; World Bank 2003). In order to investigate how aid may be undermining democratic institutions, this project proposes a country case study of Tanzania, one of the world.s largest recipients of foreign aid. The research will consist of qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis will examine if sub-national variation in aid flows can help explain sub-national variation in citizens. perceptions of government accountability. Completing the quantitative analysis requires combining data on sub-national aid distribution with existing sub-national public opinion data on perceptions of democracy and government effectiveness. The qualitative analysis will consist of interviews with government officials, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and leading opposition political figures in three regions: a region that receives high aid flows (Arusha), a region that receives intermediate aid flows (Iringa), and a region that receives low aid flows (Rukwa). The purpose of the interviews is to investigate the hypothesized causal mechanisms that link variation in aid flows to differences in perceptions of government accountability more deeply existing survey data permits. The core hypothesis is that in Tanzania, sub-national governments which receive larger aid flows will be less responsive to citizen demands than governments receiving less aid. The project requires conducting research for approximately one year. Two to three months will be used to collect data on sub-national aid distribution in Dar es Salaam, where most aid agencies and government ministries have their headquarters. Nine to ten months will be used for regional interviews. To complete comprehensive interviews will require spending approximately two weeks in each of the fifteen districts that comprise the three regions and conducting between fifteen and twenty interviews per district. The results of the study will have unambiguous implications for aid program design. While existing studies suggest that foreign aid is weakening democratic institutions, the results of these studies do not make clear why aid may be undermining democracy nor do they provide donors with guidance they need to redesign aid programs to mitigate unintended political consequences and promote democratic reform. Consequently, the broader impact of this project is clear: because the results of the study will clarify the political effects of existing aid programs, the results will provide donors with the analysis needed to make more informed decisions with regard to the role their foreign aid plays in mediating relations between recipient governments and their citizens.